The Western Conference Wild Card Clusterfuck

By the 27GP mark; a third of the NHL szn schedule; it looked like you could Western Conference lock in the division top three for both the Central and Pacific division. On the podcast – I began calling them the Elite 6. Vegas, Los Angeles, Colorado, Dallas – early Cup prediction darlings were included. Two Canadian surprises Vancouver and Winnipeg by that point proved their starts would look sustainable.

After was a drop off into a large middle clusterfuck of a group - that could at best nab one of the two of the wild card spots. At inception; based on most pundit predictions if you were to flip Edmonton with Vancouver and Minnesota with Winnipeg; it would have been an exactly what everyone expected model.

In the Pacific, after the 18GP pothole Edmonton drilled. It was under a new coach Kris Knoblauch; the oil turned it around as they spill onto a current 16-game win streak. However; its LA, who we should not forget had an NHL record road win streak to start went cold over the last 18. That opened the door that Edmonton walked thru and with it the Elite 6 no more.

That Edmonton, LA twist adds to the Western Conference wild card clusterfuck. Will we see Edmonton continue their above normal run nearing an NHL new record mark? Can LA’s pawns right their kingdom or fall back into the murky middle pack outside the castle moat below. If both were to level out now – here’s simplicity - one of them would be the Pacific division 3^rd spot – the other the top wild card team.

That Edmonton’s current improvable streak vaults the Oil to 6^th in the conference only shows how futile making up ground in the NHL loser point heavily assisted totals is. It still required LA’s struggles co-existing to accomplish. How LA responds or better if they respond sitting 7^th now does affect what now includes the Kings into an otherwise would be a murky middling group of 6 teams vying for the lone remaining playoff spot.

As for Edmonton and LA – neither can afford a stretch like Edmonton had at szn’s start or the present one LA finds themselves mired in or they will open-up an opportunity. Its a warning shot not to punch either team’s post szn ticket – no room for error and just under half the campaign to go as all-star break looms.

The Oilers record over the last 3-sets of 9 is 24-3-0 in the last 27GP. 2 goals or fewer for a franchise record last 14. Good goaltending, team defence, and goal scoring has fueled Edmonton of late. LA having 2GP more is 5PTS back. The Kings game 46 a loss; an OTL in game-47.  The 2-sets of 9 prior LA is a 5-8-5 mark over the last 18GP. While road warriors LA’s kryptonite is Crypto.com arena and an abysmal 8-9-5 home record. The castle gates are getting rammed and the Predator Kracken Coyote Blue Flame of the Wild at the doorstep is indeed best described a clusterfuck to fend off.

Currently sitting 8^th is St. Louis; picking up the extra time PT Vs. LA on Sunday. The Blues equal in PTS with LA but having one more GP.  Central division rivals Nashville and Arizona not far behind. Pacific division Seattle and Calgary in the mix; and finally, the Central’s Minnesota, who have not demonstrated they can make a push after their less-lengthy new coach retread John Hynes bump, but the Wild are positioned it remains possible.

Different reasons apply for each team but when we rightfully add LA as they slide and make it 7 teams for 2 wild card spots – 5 miss the playoffs.

The Crowns connections to the Wild

Realistically, at szn’s start I would only be surprised if 2 of the murky middle 7 of them - LA and Minnesota failed to be post szn bound. Injures can, in part, explain why I can see Minnesota fails to in the end.  13GP lost to Top4 D Jonas Brodin and far worse also Top4 D and Captain Jared Spurgeon done for the szn playing in a total of 16GP.  Cap strapped because of the Ryan Suter and Zac Parise buyouts – the Wild let walk, not re-up, the other Top4 mainstay D Matt Dumba and the cap crunch for injury replacement or the Wild’s ability to sign injury replacement NHL value players left non-existent to handle the hits to the backend the team has experienced.

As Mr. Brightside; as Brock Faber, 21, on the D can be - its his first full 82 R/S gauntlet while averaging seconds shy of 25 minutes TOI per game. Not sure the analogy of baptism by fire describes it justly.

Another factor is how mortal Minnesota’s goalie tandem has been. The injuries to the D-group aside, both Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury have SV% below .900. Fleury a pair of shutouts but the tandem most nights not stealing games.

LA’s detractors at szn’s start looked at the Kings tandem of Cam Talbot and Phoenix Copley as the team’s area of contender status sustainability concern. Talbot’s arrival after a tough szn including an injury before his Ottawa campaign began a year ago after asking out of Minnesota prior to Gustavsson’s breakout as the return tender of that deal. Talbot’s stats led to an All-Star selection this year. He is 0-7-3 in his last 10 starts and his last win came on December 23^rd. Still the GAA and SV% for Talbot is better than both Minnesota’s tandem are this year. Copley was injured and his numbers were rough, yet his record 4-1-2 in the backup role evidence LA was oft to get run support on Copley’s starts.

His replacement was in fact Talbot’s old tandem partner for the 2019-20 szn in Calgary David Rittich. He began this year assigned to the AHL, after Winnipeg opted to upgrade, the year after Nashville opted to upgrade the backup goalie position back-to-back szns and LA added him. While Rittich in small sample size replacing Copley duties has way better GAA and SV% stats – he sports the near same 4-1-3 record.

The big-ticket C trade and sign PL “Hollywood” Dubois has not valued the player performance lost count (not just Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, and Rasmus Kupari directly to Winnipeg) but it had LA offload D Sean Durzi to Arizona. A fuck-ton of playable organizational depth NHLers for a 3^rd-line C that has the teams worst +/-. Dubois followed next by the prior szn Top6 spark Kevin Fiala, who likewise saw LA part with previously talked about Brock Faber as a cost. The combined 16M+ the two make in salary makes for a fan’s dungeon hot seat.          

Ultimately as teams – Minnesota coming off two - 100+ PT R/S with the same dead cap constraints and Los Angeles a PT shy with 99PTS – two szns ago of mirroring over 100+ the previous two as well and both franchises with plans to change the last two first round playoff exits this year missing the post szn feels improbable. As the All-Star break nears; they bookend the clusterfuck Wild Card picture in the West and its disappointing falling short of more lofty expectations as they are.

Sleepers – not Keepers

Murky, muddy, middling – sleepers.

Seattle, last year’s Western Conference playoff surprise darling still had questions in net for this year that of late goalie Joey “don’t pull” Daccord has answered after Philip Grubauer failed to.

Like Minnesota – health can be cited with goaltending as to why Seattle falls out of and not stays in the playoff team group. Daccord has brightened Seattle’s chances although he has only won 1 of his last 5 starts (prior to Sunday's W over CBJ) and that was Vs. bottom feeder Chicago.

Seattle’s team health factors here – ample games lost to Top6 F’s Jaden Schwartz, Andre Burakovsky and 3^rd line Turbo staple Brandon Tanev but even Top6 F’s Jordan Eberle and Matty Beniers have missed GPs. Seattle’s goal scoring by committee model is more than other NHL teams affected by key injuries. It does stretch what in full health are evenly distributed players in the right line-up roles. Adding Thomas Tatar from Colorado in a mid-szn trade was helpful for NHL playable F depth.

Seattle’s pre-hype stock did not fall as 20G getter Daniel Sprong and double-digit bottom-sixer Ryan Donato moved on but they were key contributors like undervalued D Carson Soucy was. Not sure vet Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Kailer Yamatoto would replace those goals. Why – Tatar’s add helps again. Vet D Brian Dumoulin signed as Soucy departed. Its not saying, who is the better defencemen of the two – Soucy has some underappreciated attributes that I appreciate. Seattle’s D-group misses an element without Soucy. In fact, it may be all three had a compete, tougher to play against game, Seattle has less of this year. Remember, Seattle four-line magic is because the teams not stacked full of high-end skill. To me - I felt that element might have Seattle fall out.

This year’s daring underdog is Arizona as they come out of a full rebuild that steps thus far have been properly adhered to – and that jump does make them the likeable before their arrival time to regular competitiveness underdog darling if there was one in the current wild card mix. At minimal its a team playing meaningful games and that was in fact, the team’s goal for this szn.

Keys to playing competitive games is goaltender Conor Ingram. Arizona kept near to prime age core players Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse, Barrett Hayton, and the prime aged Nick Schmaltz. That gets molded with the next group of draft and develop – D JJ Moser; F’s Logan Cooley, Matias Maccelli, Dylan Guenther, and Jack McBain.

While it misses D Jacob Chychrun from the first group – its D Matt Dumba and via trade the near to prime age Sean Durzi added this year of a D-group that all are playing on the final years of respective NHL deals and if that has ever happened before – its rare.

Up front a pair of playable vet F additions Jason Zucker and Alex Kerfoot. Yet, traded away at last year’s deadline – depth D Troy Stecher and F Nick Bjugstad that also bridged continuity and less turnover by returning to the pack.

Last Thursday, Arizona claimed Calgary C Adam Ruzicka, 24, off waivers. 3G 6A 9PTS in 39GP with Calgary. A bottom6 C that could slot where injured for the remaining szn Travis Boyd would have. Notable is GM Armstrong grabbing a player aged into his emerging core window purposefully.

Arizona at least has played meaningful games but they may not be quite ready for playoff time this year but its upward on the organizations trajectory of a proper rebuild the last three leave you wanting without.

Retooled mediocrity

Find me a GM wording the quick “Retool” brand aid and find a spot at the table of false hope. Pass me the Kool-Aid.  

Calgary, St. Louis, and Nashville are not playoff-built teams.

The reliving it of former Calgary GM Brad Treliving. 2 szns ago; after squeaking a game 7 OT 1^st round series win nearly stolen by Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger – Calgary needed to dismantle not retool when Top line F Johny Gaudreau signed with CBJ – but also prime-aged F Matthew Tkachuk indicated he wanted out of Calgary. While the playable return of F Jonathan Huberdeau and D Mackenzie Weegar was widely applauded as a win – Calgary did also part with C Sean Monahan a month later. Huberdeau alone would not fill that Top6 hole and the Flames signed fresh off his Cup win in Colorado UFA vet C Nazem Kadri additionally.

Last szn – the defensive first coach team style of former coach Daryl Sutter was to be blamed for the already low scoring Flames scoring less that was a roster GM Treliving built to play successfully that style with a dynamic top line of game breakers Gaudeau, Tkachuk and the lone remaining Elias Lindholm. Also, Calgary with too many defence - bet wrongly D Juuso Valimaki would clear to be grabbed by Arizona. The game breaking line gone saw Lindholm go from 42G’s to 22G’s – and that line drove Calgary’s offensive while the rest of the Calgary group simply played the opposition under Suter’s coaching style even. In net; G Jacob Markstrom did not steal games, had a down year and Calgary missed the playoffs.

Worse Treliving signed long-term Huberdeau, Kadri and Weegar all over 30 now to long term big money deals while the teams 2 best prime aged game breakers stampeded off to new destinations. It was a double down on a win now group that also was more counter to the direction teams having success were going. Treliving departs leaving a mess and Calgary trade rumors talk of Lindholm as the next player to go.

Maybe Treliving’s bet would have worked but the core turnover and big deals instead of going full rebuild to retool leaves new GM Craig Conroy to have to do it but while wearing handcuffs. A team when vet goalie Jacob Markstrom is on – is too competitive to tank but not built to win enough to be a contender. In fact, with that top line in place – it maxed out as a playoff bubble team before losing the star-power. Calgary stuck with a lot of locked up aging vets, some promising rookies, but few prime-aged drivers, at F near 30 Lindholm; the recently obtained Yegor Sharangovich, 25 and being oft generous to include Andrew Mangiapane, 27.

Its a rebuild Treliving did not undertake but its clear he was at the helm to have ignored that was the time to begin one. Calgary’s present struggles will take longer to recover from with his decision. A playoff bubble team that is in regression from the playoff bubble built one that existed before.

St. Louis respectively has the 2019 Cup win unlike Calgary to fall back upon. That said, a keen analyst looking at GM Doug Armstrong’s belief in the inter-changeability of key roster parts that is not in fact so – is the looking right at you example to not attempt what Calgary did with a core group that did not even find itself to Conference Final success, let alone a Stanley Cup.

It is easy to point to Captain D Alex Pietrangelo as the St. Louis mistake. It was - but it alone did not dismantle St. Louis Cup team.  However, as the cornerstone D piece and Captain of St. Louis cup winner, Alex Pietrangelo is also a piece Vegas needed to reach hockey’s pinnacle and St. Louis allowing that to happen in free agency is on GM Doug Armstrong. Now, had Colton Parayko filled that position better is not even the discussion. St. Louis having both made them competitive considering Jay Bouwemeester’s retirement would in theory need to be, not that any are replacements for him, but one of Torey Krug, Justin Faulk, or Nick Leddy. Its the Petro and Bo combo loss that drops the Blues out of Cup contender status. Parayko remains the last valuable D core piece.    

Of the F’s save for Alex Steen to retirement, the remainder all play in the NHL. That like Petro becomes a conversation on the ability of the GM to identify and keep the core. St. Louis lost D Vince Dunn in the Seattle expansion draft. Dealt now prime age D Jake Walman and Niko Mikkola who should along with Parayko still playing in St. Louis. Seattle signed UFA F Jayden Schwartz – who was 2^nd in PTS in the Cup run playoffs but St. Louis leading goal scorer for it. To sign Chicago cup winner Brandon Saad instead.

Last year’s decline started with letting F David Perron walk as an UFA because of poor cap management. It had GM Armstrong give the up-and-coming stars Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou matching 8-year extensions; while not offering expiring then Captain and Cup Conn Smythe winner Ryan O’Reilly and the teams other goal scoring game breaker Vlad Tarasenko new offers.

If the core of the St. Louis cup win was goalie Jordan Binnington (who remains) but Petro, Bouwmeester with the up-and-coming Parayko and Dunn. In theory the only non-NHLer is Bouwmeester to retirement of a Blues top4.

Likewise – the core 4 of F’s Ryan O’Reilly, Jaden Schwartz, Vlad Tarasenko, and David Perron have all left because St. Louis traded or let them walk to free agency to sign elsewhere. Add the retired Steen and now St. Louis Captain Brayden Schenn and with the talented Thomas and Kyrou – you have more than enough players to still have a quality Top6. From the Top9 – as much interest in 20+ goal getter in St. Louis Ivan Barbarshev (part of the Cup winner) was also not kept but dealt to the team, no surprise, Vegas that won.      

St. Louis has up front like the defence essentially Schenn and Thomas of the Cup team and a couple brought back bottom sixers – Oskar Sundqvist and Sammy Blais - that you can swap out if you kept your core.  

The retool in St. Louis is you can not replace winners with other team’s winners or never won players. St. Louis is a bubble group with an aging unmovable D-group that’s lone core piece left Colton Parayko is the one player any NHL team has interest in. New interim coach Drew Bannister has St. Louis in the playoff mix and having won their last 5 with an OT home win Sunday over LA. The teams equal in PTS with LA a lone game in hand.

Its realistically about the best last playoff spot any of the retool teams could find themselves standing wise. Flirting with the playoffs fills the seats with fans of these markets. Its a false path led under faulty construction not solid ground to sustainable competitiveness. The St. Louis Cup core is dismantled and a playoff bubble team is exactly what St. Louis GM Armstrong replaced it with.

Enter the latest retool team Nashville. After a Cup Final, Cinderella like, in 2016-17, predating St. Louis actual winning won that is years removed from the present now to point out. It was former GM David Poile retooling unsuccessfully till retirement to get back to that spot. New GM Barry Trotz helped last deadlines fire sale. A lot of that positive for the direction of the franchise.    

Dealing F Mikael Granlund was good; although Nashville would still potentially have Top6 winger Kevin Fiala if not for Poile’s poor trades in letting go of well players Nashville had who can fill the back of the net. In fact, expect for the traded for Filip Forsberg, that kind of scorer is exactly what Nashville never has enough of.

Trading D Matias Ekholm heart breaking but after adding Cup winner same skill set D Ryan McDonagh – you can have too much of near to exactly - same defensively sound 2^nd pairing same shot thing. Something, needs to give, and what remains is the same. New GM Trotz add another vet Cup winner D as he takes the helm in Luke Schenn and if your surprised salary dump pick-up same shot D Tyson Barrie falls out of the mix as a result. Its simply this year’s Ekholm-McDonagh conundrum repeated after getting a RHD in dealing the strong side LHD issue correctly. Nashville being Nashville, of late its bottom pair LHD Jeremy Lauzon getting flowers for his play.

What we should talk about is how rushed to NHL play and never reached top pair potential RHD Dante Fabbro has yet to arrive in Nashville now in his prime years failing. Or worse, that same draft, now Cup winner Sam Girard was traded ill-fated to Colorado that with Roman Josi and Cup winner McDonagh or traded away Ekholm and the added Schenn ought to be Nashville’s present D-group that still feels off since the Shea Weber trade.

If the retool is to win with prime age goalie Juuse Saros and 33-year-old Captain D Roman Josi – the additional Cup winning vets to the D-group makes sense – because what the current make up lacks unless injuries happen - is for the next crop of defence to have NHL spots to develop and the honesty that Fabbro and late bloomer Alex Carrier are the same age position playing but not elevated to take the Weber to Josi to hand it off torch. How far away is Tanner Molendyk – the lone high-end D prospect since Girard and Fabbro were.  

The Ryan Johansson salary retained trade and Matt Duchene buyouts most define how far away Nashville was. Culture with winner Ryan O’Reilly, 32, but adding hard-working Gustav Nyquist is better parts in but to what end. Look Forsberg has 23Gs playing with O’Reilly and Nyquist. Forsberg also had 42Gs playing with Duchene and Granlund. Maybe, Forsberg, 29, just scores. However, all 3 on a line gives Nashville one line that if you think back to the JOFA line – Johansson, Forsberg, and Victor Arvidsson time when Nashville had guess fucking what – one scoring line. What Nashville never has is more than one.

As Dallas competes – Jaime Benn and Tyler Seguin give way to Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson, and next it leads to Wyatt Johnston – to be followed by Logan Stankoven. You watch the draft and development and adding Joe Pavelski as Dallas did much in the way O’Reilly is intended for Nashville.

Except – the top line is not prime age Forsberg, Yakov Trenin, and top prospect F Philip Tomasino to have O’Reilly come out with Nyquist and Cody Glass or Luke Evangelista on a 3^rd line. And there still lacks a 2^nd line as Nashville under any coach has.

Nashville has and still lacks at minimal 2 Top6 prime-age players, say what they had in Kevin Fiala and Eeli Tolvanen to put O’Reilly or Cody Glass with if again that not 1^st line was developed into being one. Then forgive me but quickly departed Nino Neiderreiter, Colton Sissons, and Gus Nyquist would be a vet tough to play against 3^rd line and Evangelista would get development time as a 4^th liner to move up the lineup during injuries.

Save for Forsberg, Nashville’s forwards are always asked to play above the spot other NHL teams would ask of them, then when they fail, Nashville seems to give a new crop of players the same map to try and overcome to the same results.

If the organization has drafted Top6 forwards – they gave up on them too soon. They never are bad enough or identify most times the forwards who will impact and trades to get those prime aged players never happen. Who is this retooling for in Nashville? Philip Tomasino, Cody Glass, Dante Fabbro, Luke Evangelista, and Yaro Askarov as a core? Is it for Forsberg, Josi, Sissons, O’Reilly, McDonagh and Saros. This does neither because the same missing pieces remain the same ones needed.

The tease of the retool works if you can draft and develop late first rounders, and hit on all your 2^nd and 3^rd round picks in a window to not have to tear down to lock up a near to sure fire top5 drafted difference maker. Hard and rare to do. Fans of Calgary, St. Louis, and Nashville need that – full on rebuild - not a short-lived round of sneaking in the playoffs. I will admit rooting against Calgary, St. Louis, and Nashville this year. Its for the same reason – being rewarded for doing something the wrong way fools you into thinking you can get away with it – and these three teams exemplify that.