All At Twenty - Comparing the division teams if they arrived at the benchmark at the same time.

Thanksgiving eve – the first pair of Central Division teams arrived at the 20GP mark. Dallas and Nashville; and while all the teams did not arrive at the benchmark; at an equal moment – let’s essentially in this blog piece act as if the teams all did and look at a top to bottom division look from that equal GP mark to draw comparisons on.

After Thanksgiving; Friday; saw St. Louis, Minnesota and Chicago join the teams to reach to 20GP mark. Sunday; Arizona and Winnipeg arrived at the benchmark game total leaving only Colorado to do so. Had Colorado not had their Nashville game postponed they would have on the same weekend Saturday night. Instead; the 20GP mark came Tuesday in a loss in Winnipeg on November 29^th.

What you do see is how close the division title is 20 games in; that Dallas and playing more games in first is a lot closer to Winnipeg and Colorado than it appears. 2 points separated the top trio; likewise, the middle group St. Louis, Nashville and Minnesota were all 500 point-% teams all with identical point totals. Lastly; the teams expected to be bringing up the basement are in Arizona and Chicago.

The common thread of the top 3 grouping is an excellent starting goalie. Dallas’ Jake Oettinger; Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck and Colorado’s Alexandar Georgiev to give the teams the ability to win.

DAL 12-5-3 27PTS .675 79GF 56GA +23 12RW

The big additional factor for Dallas is that goals for number. This year it led the division thru the first twenty but not at the expense of goals against. It also is not solely driven by Dallas’ dynamic top line. Absolutely; that line is producing but the secondary scoring lacking in recent seasons is not this year.

The other interesting Dallas part of being tied a top thru the first 20GP is that they hold the tiebreaker as the 12 wins were all regulation ones. If the division continues to be as tightly contested at the top that regulation wins total is the first tiebreaker. It is important.

The young guns are clearly becoming the team drivers lead by Jason Robertson on offence and back-stopped by Jake Oettinger in net. While not forgetting the cornerstone D Miro Heiskanen. Dallas positionally drafted all 3; now aged 23-year-olds; the same year in 2017.

Dallas forecast: Do not sleep on this team – it is well constructed and balanced and coach Peter DeBour plays his four lines and Dallas has the roster to be able to do it. Newly re-upped sniper Jason Robertson is going to competing all year to win the Rocket Richard trophy too.

WPG 13-6-1 27PTS .675 63GF 53GA +10 7RW

Another new coach bump like Dallas has had but with Rick Bowness behind the bench in Winnipeg and a new coaching staff that includes another NHL former head coach Scott Arniel. This is primarily but minus 2 top 9 forwards the same group of a year ago. The buy-in is having star players like Mark Scheifele and Josh Morrissey have stand out seasons.

That good goals against number - not only because of the goaltending - but the team defence, forwards included, that has improved it. Over the first 20GP; Winnipeg was just a goal off to Colorado’s for the division low best. You can also give the credit to the team systems the new coach staff implemented.

The dynamic Nic Ehlers has played 2 games before he went out with sports hernia injury. That affects the goals for totals but the goal differential was still double-digit positive without his contribution. Upon Ehlers return; that’s where Winnipeg gets a top end player to boost it and it is required to keep up with Colorado and Dallas. Winnipeg winning in overtime before shoot outs was also beneficial.

Winnipeg forecast: Playing above expected – good goaltending and hard-work thru the Jets line-up, including the bottom forward group is always required for Winnipeg to win. They showed more consistency in being able to do that getting off to a franchise best start.

COL 12-7-1 25PTS .625 68GF 52GA +15 9RW

The defending champs found ways to win without Captain Gabe Landeskog but also Valeri Nichushkin and Darren Helm – newly acquired Evan Rodrigues the latest casualty. That Nichushkin and Rodrigues played as part of this 20GP stretch assisted Colorado’s record over it.

The superstars Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar are driving the offence and the teams power play. Both reasons why with solid goaltending Colorado was 2 points from dead even at the 20GP benchmark. Colorado if they can get back to health is a hard team beat and they remain in the mix to take the division this year.

Next man up has been a real thing for Colorado and they continue to battle to stay in the mix with players that would otherwise by in the AHL with the Colorado Eagles and not the big club having to contribute to Colorado’s efforts of a Stanley Cup defence. The black aces (reserved for the playoff not playing group) and contributing to ensuring Colorado is playoff bound.

Colorado forecast: Surviving injuries to stay in the hunt and it is the next stretch to the season’s mid-point that turns out may in fact be more of a challenge for Colorado than the first 20GP was. Provided Colorado is in striking distance when the full compliment is back – Colorado can if anyone could – go on a long win streak. 

The looking to be bubble playoff wild card hopeful trio – can be instantly compared in the goal differential numbers that the top 3 teams had – positive double-digit ones – two the second group that were negative.

STL 10-10-0 20PTS .500 57GF 70GA -13 8RW

St. Louis first 20GP was marked by an 8-game losing streak and a 7-game win streak and finding them at 500 point-% makes sense. It still was below expectations for the team and largely that was on the Top 9 forward group fire power that has yet to be re-established.

The team defence and goaltending had St. Louis more equal to the teams with GM’s that were trying to tank. Two parts to this – St. Louis gives up a lot of shots on goal against; if the offence does not outscore it; than the goalies, especially starter Jordan Binnington need to have great goals saved above expected to compensate for it. Neither were the case in the first 20GP.

St. Louis had a Top 9 forward group that had goal scoring by committee and this year the team does not. The line-combinations are not set and there is throughout the group an underperformance here. Thing with St. Louis is that players are capable of it. The question is will they.

St. Louis forecast: In what I expect to be goalie Jordan Binnington will play his heaviest starter workload – he needs to elevate his game based on what St. Louis gives up. Likewise, the team offence needs to produce more to balance the goal differential and that is easy to point out but not easy to do.

NSH 9-9-2 20PTS .500 53GF 65GA -12 7RW

Only Chicago scored fewer goals than Nashville – the lack of team offence is where to start with understanding the Predators 500 point-% thru 20GP. It is both Top 6 and Bottom 6 under-achieving or should we say a group that metrics a year ago had some career single-season highs that will not be duplicated. We forget a direct comparison to last year’s over-achievement is not a good reference point.

What is also true; although, better of late, starting goalie Jusse Saros, he had a very pedestrian for him goals saved above expected – a metric that helps Nashville win – when Saros is near the league leaders in it. This Nashville record really reflects even with back-up goalie Kevin Lankinen better than last year’s back-up – an average Jusse Saros makes Nashville as a team an average one.

Penalties – the team is guilty of taking too many again this year. As of late – there has even been an improvement to it but they still rank below 20 plus teams even with that improvement. A team often in close games cannot be letting the opposition have power play chances to convert because it does lead to costly points lost in the standings.  

Nashville forecast: If Jusse Saros and his goals saved above expected statistic gets to the unreal level it has been the previous last two seasons – Nashville can again – get on a run and find itself in the position to be a playoff team. It really is that elementary – this lunch box John Hynes coached team needs Juice packed in it everyday.

MIN 9-9-2 20PTS .500 58GF 59GA -1 6RW

A rough defensive start to the season that has balanced that by 20GP – Minnesota was another team below expectation but even. However, of the trio that arrived at 500 point-% at 20GP – it is the Wild that were also close to even in goal differential at -1. They are the team now in the next stretch above it. Also included in this 20GP stretch was back-up goalie Filip Gustavsson playing for starter Marc-Andre Fleury for a week due to injury.

All teams have faced injuries but at one point Minnesota was down still injured Ryan Hartman and re-injured Brandon Duhaime. Missing Jordan Greenway at season’s start and Marcus Foligno all out for a time. That is four players that really are the hard-style coach Dean Evason deploys. Minnesota missed that size, skill, but also especially the grit. They added tough guy Ryan Reaves.

Kirill Kaprizov is doing his thing but Joel Erikson Ek without his line-mates and Matt Boldy without traded away cap-casualty Kevin Fiala struggled as essential to secondary scoring of Minnesota’s goal scoring by committee team model. Hartman’s injury factors large too. This is still a re-work in progress for the Wild.

Minnesota forecast: The team looks to have found the balance of better defence and more spread-out goal production of late. I still think Minnesota needs a Top 9 value player in Ryan Hartman’s absence to make a push but I also lean to Minnesota even with the player compliment as it is now – is the team of the 500 point-% teams at 20GP to keep an eye on.

ARI 7-10-3 17PTS .425 54GF 70GA 7RW

Arizona was in the season longest for any team 14 game road trip as they arrived at game 20. The team was winning more games than most expected that trip would produce. In fact; 7 wins this year at 20GP is one more than having won 6 last year by game 29 is. With the absolute worst schedule to do it. Arizona at the 20GP mark was not the division’s worst team.

Arizona goalie Karel Vejmelka has improved from a year ago. Amongst the best in goals saved above expected this year that is helping this team win more games. I had overall assessed the team playing in front of Veggie was going to be better than a year ago. I had also thought teams would have scouted the tendencies to score more often and that regression has not happened.

This win total is one that also does not include many games from either top D-man Jacob Chychrun or top line forward Nick Schmaltz. Chychrun played in Arizona’s 16^th this year. Schmaltz played in one before he was hurt, and return that same game to the line-up. If-and-when Chychrun is traded – I would just point to Arizona being able to sustain the over 400 point-% without him.

Arizona forecast: They are near to done the long road trip and the 20GP benchmark was all road game heavy except for 4 home games. Arizona still was a point better than Chicago. I think by season’s end Arizona will be ahead in the standings on Chicago – unless they trade away goalie Vejmelka. 

CHI 6-10-4 16PTS .400 50GF 71GA -21 4RW

Chicago was over 500 point-% very early on. Part due to a less-defensive focused NHL that by game 15 had quickly moved away from run-and-gun quickly; and now injured goalie Alex Stalock – who has a concussion but also had a winning record kept Chicago in games. Petr Mrazek and Arvid Soderblom just have not been consistently as good as the last line of defence on an under-maned D-group that also lost minute muncher Seth Jones to injury over the first 20GP.

No division team scored fewer goals than Chicago over the first 20GP. They do not have the player personnel for a true NHL top 6 and likewise not sure any of the 4^th line regulars would make any other NHL roster. It is thin and players such as Taylor Raddysh are playing a line up the depth chart. In fact; in many ways, except for Patrick Kane and 3^rd line center in season trade acquisition Jason Dickinson – all the other forwards are a line above where they slot on a good NHL team.

The defence after Seth Jones has Connor Murphy as a most NHL teams top 4 D and bottom pair value guys; that two of; need to play top-4 of after that. A bare cupboard of draft pick prospects and youthful ones of those worth naming. Chicago fans will not have much on the horizon to look forward too.  

Chicago forecast: Surprise but rare upset wins and long losing streaks. The season preoccupation is whether Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews asked to be traded to teams that have a chance to win a Stanley Cup to add to their respective 3-time winning careers. It is something staying in Chicago will not offer – especially with everything GM Kyle Davidson has already undone.

At the 20GP mark; in the final analysis; you see three distinct tiers in the Central Division. Dallas, Winnipeg, and Colorado competing for the division title. The expectation for that to hold over the full 82 schedule I expect holds true. Goaltending and once Colorado is healthy – a push from the defending Champs provides for it.

The trio at 500 point-% St. Louis, Nashville and Minnesota still have questions. All three have a path to get into the top 3 mix, especially if one of those teams struggles. However, it is more likely they battle with Pacific division teams and the two available wild-card playoff spots.

The 3^rd tier is NHL lottery winning hopefuls at least as far as the General Managers of both teams; Arizona and Chicago; are concerned and by the 20GP mark that also clearly showed they would likely at minimum missing the playoffs this year. Pacific division Anaheim is a really, bad hockey team. It is possible neither Arizona, nor Chicago end up last in the NHL basement – they both will stay below the playoff cut-off teams.